A wave of momentum for Vice President Kamala Harris could catapult her to victory over former President Donald Trump in November’s presidential election.
Democrats have seen their presidential polling position improve dramatically over the two weeks since Harris entered the race. The bulk of polls conducted since President Joe Biden pulled out of the election now show the vice president with a modest lead over Trump nationally and neck-and-neck in key battleground states.
The impending announcement of a running mate for Harris could inspire a new round of polling gains for the Democratic ticket, while the Democratic National Convention—set to take place in Chicago from August 19 to August 22—may result in a further bump just weeks before early voting begins in some states.
“Presidential candidates typically enjoy a bounce after their convention, so Trump might be able to claw back some support after that headliner event,” University of Kentucky political science professor D. Stephen Voss told Newsweek. “But the excitement that Harris generated in late July and early August could be tougher to dampen.”
“Generic negative advertising might not be able to do much,” Voss added. “The GOP will need strong opposition research.”
Photo Illustration by Newsweek/Getty Images
Dan Lamb, senior lecturer at Brooks School of Public Policy at Cornell University, said in comments to Newsweek that Harris is “winning the race to frame herself as a forward looking, energetic, former prosecutor,” while “Trump is struggling to settle on an effective line of attack.”
“Harris’s unerring performance in the last two weeks is inspiring a coalition of groups to believe that winning is possible,” Lamb said. “This self-reenforcing bandwagon effect can overcome ideological differences within an underdog’s campaign. Barring a disruptive event, misstep, or revelation, I expect Harris’s poll numbers to continue climbing.”
Regardless, with 90 days still to go until Election Day, others have warned that the Harris campaign could struggle to win over crucial swing voters if she is seen as too liberal, possibly erasing momentum that has been fueled by Democratic-base enthusiasm.
“Whether it lasts depends on two things—on the Harris side, whether she can avoid sounding significantly more left than Biden,” Syracuse University political science professor Grant Davis Reeher told Newsweek. “I don’t think the country has the appetite right now for a lot of new social programs, for more movement to the left culturally, and for significant new public spending.”
“On the Trump side, it’s the same question as always—whether he can avoid alienating groups of voters that were beginning to take another look at him,” he continued. “And more to the point, whether he can avoid mobilizing them to turn out against him.”
Reeher went on to suggest that the vice president’s political future could also “depend on the stock market remaining stable,” pointing out that the global market has been spiraling downward in recent days following a worse-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday.
Endorsements for Harris by pop-culture figures like Megan Thee Stallion, nearly every major Democratic politician and some politicians from outside her party—such as former Republican Georgia Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan—may be of limited value in persuading swing voters who are open to voting for Trump.
However, her campaign remaining in the media spotlight and potentially awakening voters who might not otherwise participate in politics could be a much harder factor for Trump to overcome.
William Reno, professor and chair of the political science department at Northwestern University, argued that Harris may have a lasting advantage over Trump because she appeals to “ordinary people who are otherwise inattentive to politics because they were so disgusted with what was on offer in both parties.”
“Harris puts Trump on the defensive and runs the story now,” Reno told Newsweek. “My guess is she will continue an upward trend in the polls … She won’t convince Trump supporters but she can mobilize a portion of Americans that opted out when it seemed that the choice was an old weirdo heavily into makeup vs. a broken down old man.”
Beyond improvements in polling, momentum for Harris is evident in her campaign achieving a record-breaking fundraising haul in short order. The Harris campaign raised over $310 million in July, more than doubling the $138.7 million that the Trump campaign raised during the month.
An estimated 2 million individual first-time donors gave to Harris in July. The Trump campaign has not released information on the number of first-time donors contributing to the former president in July.
Heading into August, the Harris campaign had a total of $377 million in cash on hand, which may include some funds left over from the now defunct Biden-Harris campaign. The Trump campaign had $327 million.
“The tremendous outpouring of support we’ve seen in just a short time makes clear the Harris coalition is mobilized, growing, and ready to put in the work to defeat Trump this November,” Harris campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said.
إرسال تعليق