For astute observers of Japanese baseball, or the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Roki Sasaki is already a known commodity. The 22-year-old phenom is baseball’s version of LeBron James — a star in high school who has delivered on his potential early and often as a professional.
Soon, he could be coming to the United States.
Sasaki has in the past requested permission from his team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, to allow him to enter the posting system and jump to Major League Baseball. However, the team is under no obligation to do so, and Sasaki has little financial incentive to jump now.
Under the current rules of the posting system between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball, Sasaki would be limited to his signing team’s international spending cap if he leaves Japan before 2026.
Which team has the largest international spending cap this off-season?
Fortunately for Sasaki, the answer is one of baseball’s best teams: the Baltimore Orioles.
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Writing for FanGraphs.com, Eric Longenhagen reports the Orioles currently have about $4,268,880 on the upcoming international class. That number can change for a variety of reasons — teams can trade their international signing money, for example — but for now no other club can spend more than $4 million, per the report.
Does that put Baltimore in the driver’s seat for perhaps the most coveted player in the forthcoming free agent class? Maybe.
As Longenhagen explains,
… of course, if Sasaki decides to come over this winter rather than in 2026 when he’d be paid more, it’s perhaps an indication that money is not the most meaningful driver for him and that he might just sign where he feels most comfortable (which people in baseball generally believe to be the Dodgers) rather than where his bonus would be the biggest. The potential for other streams of income will likely be most plentiful in LA, too. If Sasaki is posted this offseason, he’ll be set for free agency at age 29, after the 2030 season.
The precedent of Shohei Ohtani is perhaps instructive here.
Ohtani also decided to leave money on the table when he signed as an international amateur with the Angels in Dec. 2017, at age 23. But he more than made up for that loss when he signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers last December.
Technically, Ohtani is only making $2 million in salary from the Dodgers this year, due to the unique structure of his contract deferrals. Most of Ohtani’s income is reportedly from his endorsements. Perhaps Sasaki is willing to bank on a similar plan for his future earnings — a future perhaps more possible in Los Angeles.
For now, however, the Orioles have something no other MLB team can offer Sasaki if he’s interested in beginning his career in Baltimore: a signing bonus in excess of $4 million.
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